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Infrequent stand-replacing wildfires are characteristic of mesic and/or cool conifer forests in western North America, where forest recovery within high-severity burn patch interiors can be slow, yet successful over long temporal periods (decades to centuries). Increasing fire frequency and high-severity burn patch size, under a warming climate, however, may challenge post-fire forest recovery, promoting landscape-level shifts in forest structure, composition, and distribution of non-forest patches. Crucial to a delay and/or impediment to this shift, fire refugia (i.e., remnant seed sources) may determine forest recovery trajectories and potential forest state-transitions. To examine how fire refugia attributes (i.e. extent, composition, and structure) interact with local climate and environmental conditions to determine post-fire forest recovery responses, we developed fine-grain maps of fire refugia via remote sensing and conducted field-based assessment of post-fire conifer tree establishment largely originating (i.e., dispersed) from fire refugium in the Central Cascade Range of the Pacific Northwest United States. We found that limitations on seed availability, represented by the distance 2 -weighted density (D 2 WD) of fine-grain refugia extent, largely explained post-fire tree establishment responses within our relatively mesic and cool subalpine study sites. Interactions between seed availability, climate, and environmental conditions indicated that the structural attributes of refugia (e.g., tree height) and site abiotic/biotic environmental controls (e.g., climate water deficit, canopy cover, and coarse woody debris cover) interplayed to constrain or enhance species-specific tree establishment responses. Importantly, these interactions illustrate that when seed availability is critically low for a given area, climate-environment conditions may strongly determine whether forests recover following fire(s). Toward modelling and predicting tree establishment responses and potential forest state-transitions after large stand-replacing fires(s), our study demonstrates the importance of accurately quantifying seed availability via the fine-grain extent, configuration, and attributes of remnant seed source legacies. 

Nearly 0.8 million hectares of land were burned in the North American Pacific Northwest (PNW) over two weeks under record-breaking fuel aridity and winds during the extraordinary 2020 fire season, representing a rare example of megafires in forests west of the Cascade Mountains. We quantified the relative influence of weather, vegetation, and topography on patterns of high burn severity (>75% tree mortality) among five synchronous megafires in the western Cascade Mountains. Despite the conventional wisdom in climate-limited fire regimes that regional drivers (e.g., extreme aridity, and synoptic winds) overwhelm local controls on vegetation mortality patterns (e.g., vegetation structure and topography), we hypothesized that local controls remain important influences on burn severity patterns in these rugged forested landscapes. To study these influences, we developed remotely sensed fire extent and burn severity maps for two distinct weather periods, thereby isolating the effect of extreme east winds on drivers of burn severity. Our results confirm that wind was the major driver of the 2020 megafires, but also that both vegetation structure and topography significantly affect burn severity patterns even under extreme fuel aridity and winds. Early-seral forests primarily concentrated on private lands, burned more severely than their older and taller counterparts, over the entire megafire event regardless of topography. Meanwhile, mature stands burned severely only under extreme winds and especially on steeper slopes. Although climate change and land-use legacies may prime temperate rainforests to burn more frequently and at higher severities than has been historically observed, our work suggests that future high-severity megafires are only likely to occur during coinciding periods of heat, fuel aridity, and extreme winds.